Marcus van Vugt discusses how futurist thinking developed, how executives might turn predictions into more useful, testable innovations, and why he has focused his career on delivering impact.
Futurists attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how these emerge from the present. First used in the 1840’s in the context of theology with the interpretation of the bible in literal, physical and apocalyptic terms, futurism developed 100 years later through the work of Ossip Flechtheim[1] who proposed that there is social value inherent in the probable and actionable process of change. Current futurists look at possible, probable, and preferable futures and the interaction of wildcard events.
We are seeing significant investment in ‘Digital Transformation’ and for many organisations this relates to being ‘data prepared’. Over the coming years I expect to see a significant shift in an organisations ability to leverage data more effectively for all its strategic and operational decision making and furthermore to extend their use of their own and others’ data into their supply chains. The current pandemic (and probabilities for the next one) are driving a series of significant changes particularly on how organisations operate and invest into their business model with specific impacts on the ‘future of work’ including operating locations and staff retention models across traditional white-collar jobs – understanding founded on data. Will we see the traditional Chief Strategists venture into becoming organisational Futurists?...in time the data will tell.
The butterfly effect is the phenomenon in chaos theory whereby a minor change in circumstance can cause a large change in outcome. Originally defined as a phenomenon in weather forecasting by Henri Poincare and Norbert Wiener, Edward Lorenz refined the mathematical weather forecasting models to show that a butterfly flapping its wings could theoretically cause a tornado several weeks later[2]
This effect can be seen in our own lives where small actions taken today can have a large impact in the future. As a young, naïve Chemistry graduate, I was fortunate enough to start a career in software development at the same time as the advent of the PC and its subsequent growth in business. My reasoning at the time was that Industrial Chemists (in the Petro-chemical industry) had a life expectancy of 55..not for me. With a self-belief and supported through lifelong learning, I happily operate in today’s leadership environment across complex, integrated value chains (delivered by legacy and SAAS solutions and interconnected global technology networks) supported by Big Data, AI and user driven automation. A simple example of the butterfly affect – starting with cutting code using Basic (and having to solder cables to get PC’s to network), I have subsequently built out a global software and services business.
Like all of you, I’ve built experiences and a CV that highlights choice and impact, starting small and built upon by further outcomes over time. Becoming a grey wolf is the next stage in building out my impact but more of that later. No doubt each step of your respective careers will have similar sliding-door moments based on your choice and option at a point in time. Options, choice, consequence…
Fast forward 30+ years and with a reflection on a career where I’ve worked with some of the brightest people around the world in helping drive digital transformation and adoption, there are a number of concepts of futurist thinking that now drive my perspectives on where organisations can derive better value for their customers particularly in terms of using data to validate options.
The butterfly effect has been touted in the CX community for near on 10 years although a CX strategy is not necessarily well understood in the context of leading and operating a ‘traditional’ business. There has been a significant growth in CX adoption with the growth of online business where disintermediation between traditional customer / business interaction has caused organisations to better understand what their customers really want and adopt their business models accordingly.
There are inherent advantages in start-ups that innovate in the CX market space. They don’t need to be tied to current processes and more importantly tied to short term performance metrics and are therefore free to focus on the customer.
Innovation in established businesses is difficult. New ways of thinking, working, and interacting are needed to drive impact across the business. Too often digital transformation is seen as a technology uplift rather than a cultural change supported by significant process redesign. CX in established business need a new frame of reference, which is where Lean CX comes in. Lean CX seeks to drive business innovation by applying lean thinking (low cost, low risk) and driving short-term cut through in the market (supported by rapid validation and research) on real customer experiences. Like futurists, Lean CX must incorporate and evaluate the probable impact of choices however unlike traditional futurists, Lean CX needs to quickly validate the possible and probable impacts by near real time testing with customers to create strategic and actionable options. With today’s global perspective it is only through extensive data analytics that we can identify market opportunities and adjacent market positions for organisations and products. Lean CX practitioners are becoming the futurists of the market.
So how does one become a grey wolf? In their latest book[3], my colleagues, Dr Robert Dew, Cyrus Allen, Bill Russell, and Georg Bej propose a number of methods by which organisations can use ‘swarm’ theories to define ways of exploring and exploiting markets. Using the analogy of ‘ants’, ‘wolves’, and ‘birds’, companies can use Lean CX to create and validate market opportunities under these different models. In reading the book I was drawn to the ‘grey wolf’ model as I couldn’t relate to an ant nor a bird, but happy to debate.
Wolf packs must solve the problem of effective and efficient tracking of prey across large areas and use a strict hierarchy to organise their activities with Alpha, Beta, Delta and Omega level wolves work together to track, surround and attack prey. Like a wolf pack, corporate CX teams need to be multi-disciplinary and work together to help the organisation to grow. Any organisation seeking to use CX today must employ Lean methods to explore and exploit markets to quickly release corporate value in serving their customers.
As executives we need to think like futurists, action Lean CX and behave like wolves to continue to innovate quickly and drive future company value.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ossip_K._Flechtheim
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect#In_popular_culture
[3] Lean CX, How to differentiate at low cost and least risk (2021, De Gruyter)
Marcus van Vugt is a digital and technology transformation expert with a Master's Degrees in Psychology, Law and Finance, Marcus complements CapFeather's customer strategy and innovation capability with a deep understanding of the intersect between technology and 'the human element'.